Yesterday the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published its latest survey about central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Sixty central banks responded in late 2020. The headline conclusion is that central banks representing a fifth (20%) of the world’s population will issue a digital currency within the next three years. China is heavily piloting its digital yuan and the country accounts for roughly 18% of the global population.
While the 20% figure may be the same as 2019, all other activity was up across the board. In 2019 only one advanced economy was considering issuing a CBDC within the next six years. In 2020 that figure increased to 20% of advanced economy central banks.
However, 60% of central banks are still unlikely to issue a CBDC within the next six years. 86% of central banks are engaged in some sort of CBDC activity, whether that’s research, proofs of concept or pilot development. There is an uptick in the more advanced activity of PoCs and pilots.
While the overall figures point to an increase in activity, it’s notable that the make up of the central banks changed significantly. For example, half of central banks that previously said any kind of CBDC was likely within six years have since downgraded their estimation to possible or unlikely. So while some have pushed back plans, others have accelerated them.
There is also a shift with less activity in wholesale CBDC and more retail CBDC.
